THE P(DOOM) FIELD EQUATION — "SHUT UP AND MULTIPLY"
Normie Doom = the median public forecast that AI causes human extinction (estimand B), shown with the forecaster spread — a number you could actually cite. Sources are live markets and recent survey/forecaster figures. The three corrections beyond Normie are HARMONIC CUBIC ADJUSTMENT.
Normie = median forecast that AI causes human extinction · Big = Normie updated by the context factors cj (V,T,G,L), each shrunk by its assumed correlation ρj with the forecasters so we don't double-count · w Less-Wronger exponent · Sh Shrimp mugging · β Bay-Area doom density · H Scott's hedge · Y Yud floor · Φ moon · S executive silence · σ logistic. Tap any row for detail.
DAWN --NOON --DUSK --MIDNIGHT --AVERAGE OF 4 CORNERS: --
RSI MELTDOWN IN:--